In the past month, REEP colleagues traveled to Kenya and Eswatini, where we had discussions with government officials and CSOs, and developed Tobacco Excise Tax Simulation Models (TETSiMs) to quantify the likely fiscal and consumption effects of a change in the excise tax structure and/or excise tax levels. We conducted these trips in close collaboration with local organisations, and the FCTC Secretariat.

February is always an interesting month for REEP, because the Minister of Finance presents and publishes the annual Budget Review. Among many other announcements, the Minister announces the excise tax increases on tobacco and alcohol products. Furthermore, the Budget Review allows us to calculate the size of the legal cigarette and alcohol markets. Unfortunately, the February 2023 budget was disappointing. The Minister increased the excise tax on tobacco and alcohol products by a mere 4.9%, in line with the Treasury’s predicted inflation rate for the 2023/24 fiscal year.